What’s new

Supplementary forecast information release notice

Since the last scheduled release of supplementary information, on 24 January 2012, the OBR has not received any requests for further information underlying its forecasts.

November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook

In our updated forecasts we expect the weaker economic outlook to increase public sector borrowing and debt. In response the Government has cut its medium-term spending plans in order to keep on track to hit its fiscal targets. Read the full report on the main Economic and fiscal outlook page.

Working paper No.2: The long-run difference between RPI and CPI inflation

Differences between the RPI and CPI measures of inflation are important because they have different effects on the OBR’s fiscal forecast. Working Paper No. 2 discusses the differences in RPI and CPI inflation and looks at the prospects for the evolution of the wedge between these two measures over the long term.

Briefing paper No. 3: Forecasting the economy

The OBR has set out its approach to macroeconomic forecasting in a new briefing paper. Unlike many outside forecasts, they need to be highly disaggregated, extend over a five-year horizon and be amenable to sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Interesting times – Chairman’s speech at the David Hume Institute

Robert Chote delivered a speech at the Royal Society of Edinburgh on 21 September in which he outlines the role and structure of the OBR and looks ahead to the next forecast.

Economic and fiscal outlook to be published on 29 November 2011

The Chancellor has announced that the OBR will publish the next Economic and fiscal outlook on Tuesday 29 November 2011.

Appointment of non-executive members

The Chancellor has announced the appointment of Lord Burns and Kate Barker as the OBR’s non-executive members. HM Treasury has issued a press notice with further details.

Using cyclical indicators to estimate the output gap

Briefing Note 2 explains how the OBR uses business surveys and other data to estimate spare capacity in the economy.

Household debt in the March 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook

The OBR has released more details of the outlook for household debt and assets implied by its March economic forecast.

OBR names expert advisory panel

The OBR has established a seven-person panel of outside experts to give regular advice on its work programme and methods.