What’s new

Supplementary forecast information release

As a result of a request for supplementary forecast information since the publication of the December 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook, we will publish the November 2010 personal tax credits forecast on a basis consistent with the December 2014 forecast. The supplementary release will be published on the main Economic and fiscal outlook page of […]

Exchange of letters between Lord Burns, Robert Chote and the Permanent Secretary, HM Treasury

Lord Burns, Chair of the OBR’s Oversight Board wrote to Robert Chote and Sir Nicholas Macpherson, Permanent Secretary, HM Treasury asking them to comment on the recommendations made by the first External Review into the OBR.  These letters, and the subsequent replies, are published below.

Exchange of letters between Robert Chote and Alyson Stafford, Scottish Government

Robert Chote has exchanged letters with Alyson Stafford, Director-General Finance, Scottish Government on the subject of forecasting the Scottish land and buildings transactions tax and the Scottish landfill tax over our 5-year forecast horizon.

Supplementary forecast information release

Following publication of our December 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a number of requests for supplementary forecast information. As a result, we have published a more detailed breakdown of changes in our debt interest forecast since the March 2014 EFO, extensions of the ‘Resource DEL spending’ table in Box 4.6 in the latest EFO and […]

Exchange of letters between Vince Cable and Robert Chote

Vince Cable, the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, and Robert Chote have exchanged letters on the issue of the Government’s total spending assumption for the period from 2016-17 onwards on which the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts are based.  

Supplementary forecast information release

Following a request for information from our March 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook, we have published the quarterly profile for our residential property transactions forecast.

First Welfare trends report published

Our first Welfare trends report looks back at the past three decades of welfare spending and forward to prospects over the coming five years. We consider the key risks to our forecast for welfare spending, both inside and outside the Government’s ‘welfare cap’. Supporting documents can be accessed via the main Welfare trends report page […]

Forecast evaluation report – October 2014

Our latest Forecast evaluation report focuses on developments in 2013-14, a year that saw growth pick up strongly and the budget deficit narrow further. In particular, we consider why it was that we under-estimated the pick-up in growth from early 2013, but why did the budget deficit not fall more rapidly as a consequence. We […]

Working paper No 7: Crisis and consolidation in the public finances

Our 7th Working Paper explains the evolution of the public finances from the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007-08 to the end of our forecast in 2018-19. This period saw the largest peacetime shock to the public finances in living memory, and ends with one of the biggest deficit reduction programmes seen in […]

First external review of the OBR published

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Kevin Page to lead the first External review into the work of the OBR in April. The Review concludes that the OBR has “laudably achieved the core duties of its mandate” and “has succeeded in reducing perceptions of bias in fiscal and economic forecasting”. It also makes recommendations on how […]

Latest publications

More publications