What’s new

Supplementary forecast information release

Following a request for information from our March 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook, we have published the quarterly profile for our residential property transactions forecast.

First Welfare trends report published

Our first Welfare trends report looks back at the past three decades of welfare spending and forward to prospects over the coming five years. We consider the key risks to our forecast for welfare spending, both inside and outside the Government’s ‘welfare cap’. Supporting documents can be accessed via the main Welfare trends report page […]

Forecast evaluation report – October 2014

Our latest Forecast evaluation report focuses on developments in 2013-14, a year that saw growth pick up strongly and the budget deficit narrow further. In particular, we consider why it was that we under-estimated the pick-up in growth from early 2013, but why did the budget deficit not fall more rapidly as a consequence. We […]

Working paper No 7: Crisis and consolidation in the public finances

Our 7th Working Paper explains the evolution of the public finances from the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007-08 to the end of our forecast in 2018-19. This period saw the largest peacetime shock to the public finances in living memory, and ends with one of the biggest deficit reduction programmes seen in […]

First external review of the OBR published

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Kevin Page to lead the first External review into the work of the OBR in April. The Review concludes that the OBR has “laudably achieved the core duties of its mandate” and “has succeeded in reducing perceptions of bias in fiscal and economic forecasting”. It also makes recommendations on how […]

Note on the Government’s announcement on migrants’ benefits

Robert Chote has issued a note on the Government’s new proposals on migrants’ benefits announced on 29 July and the Government’s reference to £500 million of savings expected over the next five years.

Graham Parker’s reappointment approved by the Treasury Select Committee

The Treasury Select Committee announced that “Having considered his oral and written evidence, and taking into account his previous appearances before the Treasury Committee, we are satisfied that Graham Parker has the professional competence and personal independence to be reappointed as a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee. We therefore consent to his appointment. We […]

Supplementary forecast information release

The OBR is committed to publishing further information underlying our forecasts and projections. As a result of a recent request for information we have published the estimated effect of fiscal drag on the numbers of taxpayers liable to income tax and National Insurance up to 2033-34.  The release is available in the supplementary documents section of the […]

OBR Working Paper series

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 10 July 2014. Working Paper No.5 – Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty uses a range of methods to demonstrate the uncertainty of measuring the output gap and considers the appropriate definition in the context of examining the UK public finances.   Working Paper […]

Supplementary forecast information release

The OBR is committed to publishing data that underlies our forecasts and projections. As a result of a recent request we have published our mortgage interest rate forecast consistent with the March 2014 EFO. This release is available in the supplementary documents section of the March 2014 EFO page.    

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