Crisis and fiscal consolidation imply shift in spending from public services and investment to welfare and debt interest


Our 7th Working Paper explains the evolution of the public finances from the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007-08 to the end of our forecast in 2018-19. This period saw the largest peacetime shock to the public finances in living memory, and ends with one of the biggest deficit reduction programmes seen in an advanced economy since World War II.

What else is new

3rd September 2014

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Kevin Page to lead the first External review into the work of the OBR in April. The Review concludes that the OBR has “laudably achieved the core duties of its mandate” and “has succeeded in reducing perceptions of bias in fiscal and economic forecasting”. It also makes recommendations on how […]

21st August 2014

The OBR is committed to publishing further information underlying our forecasts and projections. As a result of a recent request for information underlying our March 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook, we published the assumptions we used for eligible rent growth within our Housing Benefit forecast on 21 August 2014.

30th July 2014

Robert Chote has issued a note on the Government’s new proposals on migrants’ benefits announced on 29 July and the Government’s reference to £500 million of savings expected over the next five years.

What we do

The Office for Budget Responsibility:

  • produces forecasts for the economy and public finances,
  • judges progress towards the Government's fiscal targets,
  • assesses the long-term sustainability of the public finances,
  • scrutinises the Treasury's costing of tax and welfare measures. more

What's coming

Public finances release
Forecast evaluation report and Welfare trends report
Public finances release

More of what's coming