Public sector borrows £126bn in 2011-12 according to first official estimate Public sector net borrowing fell from £137bn in 2010-11 to £126bn 2011-12, helped by the first year-on-year cash fall in public services spending since 1955. This estimate is in line with the latest OBR forecast, although the figures are prone to revision. What else is new23rd April 2012
Since the publication of our most recent forecast the OBR has received a further request to release a previously unpublished forecast series. We will be releasing forecasts of alcohol consumption today, Tuesday 24 April at 11am. The release will be available in the supplementary documents section on the main EFO page of the website. 13th March 2012
The OBR has published a note describing the methodologies it will use to forecast Scottish income tax, landfill tax, stamp duty land tax and aggregates levy receipts. From April 2012, the OBR will be responsible for producing forecasts of these taxes and the first forecast was published alongside the March 2012 Economic and fiscal outlook. 29th November 2011
Differences between the RPI and CPI measures of inflation are important because they have different effects on the OBR’s fiscal forecast. Working Paper No. 2 discusses the differences in RPI and CPI inflation and looks at the prospects for the evolution of the wedge between these two measures over the long term. Estimating the UK’s historical output gap The OBR's approach to estimating the output gap has been to combine
indicators of the cyclical position of the economy, although to date the
OBR has applied these techniques only back to 2007. Working Paper No.1
paper explores methods of extending the cyclical indicator approach over
the past to produce a historical series for the UK output gap, and
compares these with historical series produced using other approaches.
Data snapshotTotal public sector spending and receipts
This chart shows the revised total public sector spending (TME) and total public sector receipts (PSCR) forecasts from the March 2012 Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
What we doThe Office for Budget Responsibility:
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Public finance release
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Public finance release
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Working paper No.1: Estimating the UK's historical output gap 